Hurricane Forecast and Warning System Social Science Research Agenda

Summary Paper | White Papers | Draft Workshop Report | Sessions at the CU Natural Hazards Workshop | Summer of Storms | Additional | Contact

Summary Paper

The following paper was written to begin to synthesize the work to date on developing a consensus social science research agenda. Please feel free to provide feedback and comments on this to Jeff Lazo at lazo@ucar.edu.

• Social Science Research Needs for the Hurricane Forecast and Warning System - December 5, 2005 [pdf]
  Hugh Gladwin, Jeff Lazo, Betty Morrow, Walter Gillis, Hugh Willoughby

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White Papers

The following five “White Papers” were written in advance of the February 2005 workshop in Pomona, CA. Some have been revised – the latest versions are posted below. These materials are provided as background for the CU Natural Hazards Workshop sessions on developing a hurricane forecast and warning system social science research agenda.

• Hurricane Forecasting: The State of the Art [pdf]
  Hugh Willoughby, Frank Marks, and Ed Rappaport
  
• Organizational Communication and Decision Making in Hurricane Emergencies [pdf]
  Mike Lindell, Carla Prater, and Walt Peacock
  
• Social Science Research Needs: A Focus on Vulnerable Populations, Forecasting and Warnings [pdf]
  Brenda D. Phillips and Betty Hearn Morrow
  
• Evacuation Decision Making and Behavioral Responses: Individual and Household [pdf]
  Hugh Gladwin and Nicole Dash
  
• Economic Impacts [pdf]
  David Letson, Dan Sutter, and Jeffrey K. Lazo

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Draft Workshop Report

The following document is the draft report from the February 2005 workshop in Pomona, CA. This material is provided as background for the CU Natural Hazards Workshop sessions on developing a hurricane forecast and warning system social science research agenda. Please do not circulate this material beyond that necessary for this workshop.

• Hurricane Forecasting and Warning System - February 16-18, 2005 [pdf]
  Draft Workshop Report

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Sessions at the CU Natural Hazards Workshop in Boulder, CO

The following documents are the abstracts for the sessions to be held during the CU Natural Hazards Workshop in Boulder, CO.

• Developing a Consensus Social Science Research Agenda on the Hurricane Forecasting and Warning System [pdf]
  Wednesday July 13th, 9:35-10:35 am


• Workshop on a Social Science Research Agenda on Hurricane Forecasts and Warnings [pdf]
  Wednesday July 13th, 2:00-5:00 pm

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Summer of Storms - The 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes - Plenary Session #3
Tuesday, July12: 10:30 - 12:00 p.m. Grand Ballroom
Session at the CU Natural Hazards Workshop in Boulder, CO

The following document is the abstract for a related session to be held during the CU Natural Hazards Workshop in Boulder, CO.

• Summer of Storms - The 2004 Atlantic Hurricanes - Plenary Session #3 [pdf]
  Tuesday, July12: 10:30 - 12:00 p.m. Grand Ballroom

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Additional background literature for the development of a social science research agenda on the hurricane forecasting and warning system

The following documents are included in the background materials for the Workshop.

• Mission Statement: [pdf]
  The is a draft statement of the purpose and objectives of the ad hoc working group formed to develop a social science research agenda on hurricane forecasting, the Hurricane Forecast Social and Economic Working Group (HFSEWG). The workshop is an outcome of the efforts of this working group.
  
• Jerry Jarrell - April 1999 WeatherZine Guest Editorial [pdf]
  Ed Rappaport's 2005 Addendum to Jarrell 1999 WeatherZine Article [pdf]
  Jerry Jarrell Article and Rappaport Addendum: The April 1999 WeatherZine Guest Editorial by Jerry Jarrell (former Director National Hurricane Center) attempts to answer the question “What Does the National Hurricane Center Need from Social Scientists?” Ed Rappaport’s addendum updates this article with specific recent concerns.

• PDT5 - Research needs on tropical cyclones [pdf]
  PDT6 - Social science research needs on weather and weather forecasting [pdf]
  PDTs: “Participation of the community in the United States Weather Research Program (USWRP) planning has been accomplished, in part, by means of “Prospectus Development Teams” (PDTs). These teams are ad hoc in nature, involving scientists from universities, agencies, and elsewhere as appropriate to the objectives of a given group. Team meetings are coordinated and facilitated by the Lead Scientist. The activities include (1) identification of fundamental issues and seminal research problems, (2) delineation of specific questions and interim objectives, and (3) recommendations of problem-solving methods and priorities.” Two PDT reports of specific interest to the objectives of this workshop are:

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For more information on the hurricane forecast social science research agenda please contact:

Jeffrey K. Lazo
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Research Applications Program and
Environmental and Societal Impacts Group
P.O. Box 3000
Boulder, CO 80307
303-497-2857
lazo@ucar.edu

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