• Here we are again!
• Discuss presentations at AMS, AAG, and other meetings
• Feedback since November
• What WAS*ISers have been up to since November (e.g., job or career changes, other conferences)

• Wish we could do everything
• "Composing a life" and defining problems (Reading: Morss 2005, section entitled "The Importance of Problem Definition" from pg 182-185) -- how this relates to WAS*IS and WAS*ISers

• Ideas, goals, issues to raise/discuss during the week (create "parking lot" so we can come back to them Thursday and Friday)

• disseminate via BAMS/other articles
• develop AMS short course
• develop ideal integrated weather/social science programs
• develop distance learning
• facilitate culture change within organizations
• shape annual WAS*IS workshop series
• consolidate our clout
• other ideas and/or other tentacles (e.g., private sector, media, international efforts)?!

• AMS policy statement "Enhancing Weather Information with Probability Forecasts" (Reading: AMS 2002; text available online at http://www.ametsoc.org/POLICY/enhancingwxprob_final.html)
• Brief discussion about NRC study on "Estimating and Communicating Uncertaint y in Weather and Related Forecasts" (Rebecca and Dave Changnon)

• Probability of exceedance curve, rankings, probabilities, frequencies, text, images

• NOAA's community resilience index (CRI)
  (Reading: NOAA, 2006 – please do not cite, copy, or distribute this concept paper!)
• Winter storm index, enhanced Fujita scale, flood severity scale (Carsell), etc.

• Have forecasters walk people through what they do to develop a forecast, the data and models they use, etc.
• Have forecasters discuss what they do in the case of extreme weather (e.g., if there's a threat of flooding in a region, who do communicate with, when…?)
• What are among the biggest challenges and frustrations of forecasting?

• How should we incorporate this into our daily lives?

• Funding and research challenges and opportunities
• Finding the time

• How would WAS*ISers use extra money if we have it??
• WAS*ISer involvement in future WAS*ISes (Norman, Summer 2006 in Boulder)

• Overview of workshop agenda and logistics

• Assess and improve usability of weather forecasts, watches, and warnings
• Understand public perceptions of weather and improve education

• Overview of workshop goals for this session and second session in March
• Reiterate need for commitment for participation throughout both sessions and between
• Logistics: computer access, phones, expense reports, etc.

• Why WAS*IS?
• Mission, objectives, expected outcomes, measurements of success
• What distinguishes WAS*IS from other efforts
• Course ground rules
• BIG WAS*IS ideas

• Brief description of research/work/relevant experience
• What you hope WAS*IS will mean to you

Open discussion for participants to get questions/issues on the table

• WAS*ISers' November workshop expectations – emerging themes
• WAS*ISers' expectations for change and answered questions by the end of the March 2006 session?

Presentation and group discussion: State of the Art Regarding the Integration of Weather and Social Science(Roger Pielke, Jr., University of Colorado, Center for Science and Technology Policy Research)

Noon Lunch and question/discussion session with Roger Pielke, Jr.

• Common verbiage (e.g., "value", "effective", "accuracy", "precision", "uncertainty", "warning") but different/inaccurate interpretations
• More unfamiliar terms (e.g., "capacity building", "stakeholders", "decision-making")
• The dangers of making assumptions about what people think

• Reports from Denver and Boulder, Colorado, and Ventura, California
• The usefulness of intensity scales (e.g., severe, moderate, Saffir-Simpson scale) in conveying warning information

• Essential communication skills, knowing your audience and knowing the media, being able to communicate effectively in very little time, getting the message across, communicating complex topics to laypeople, building relationships

• Identifying your group and initializing contact
• Identifying and meeting their needs
• Being willing to learn from them as much or more than they will learn from you
• Cultivating the relationship prior to an event for good relations before, during, and after event
• Developing decision-support systems

• Brief background about his "new" public education efforts and working with local officials
• Discussion of benefits of interactive website as public education tool for officials, residents, students, and others
• What does it mean to be effective?
• Discussion on effective risk communication, beyond brochures
• Who are the vulnerable populations and who isn't reached (e.g., non-linear warning systems)
• How to communicate to everyone: young, old, non-English speakers, non-natives, tourists, visitors, and others

• Reiterate key themes that emerged
• Other questions or ideas from Monday's discussions and presentations?

• Overview on survey design, analysis (e.g., focus groups, one-on-one, pre-test)
• Analyze and discuss specific surveys (e.g., warning project, household survey) including question design and response analysis

• Overview of GIS and its applicability for weather/society problem-solving
• Hands-on activity teaching people ArcGIS, with sets of sample data to analyze and to compare and contrast findings

• Ground rules and outline for projects
• Explore potential topics
• Begin small group discussions
• Identify points/pitfalls/ideas for each project

• Identifying types and benefits of qualitative research.
• Understanding how qualitative and quantitative research methods complement one another
• Identifying key priority areas and when to utilize different methods.
• Analyzing and classifying data

• Study of weather forecasters and emergency managers in California

• Overview of CASA
• Discussion of the integration of end-user (intermediaries, value-added end users, the public, and researchers) needs
• Discussion of CASA's pilot study with emergency managers, users, and the National Weather Service

• More questions or ideas from Tuesday's discussions and presentations?

• Individual groups discuss how CASA can best use survey information from stakeholders

• Discussion about chronology, synoptic conditions and experiences the night of July 28, 1997 (Matt Kelsch)

• Have discussion about what happened before, during, and after the, flood including meteorology, hydrology, land use regulations, and emergency response (Matt Kelsch)

• Discuss the actions of the City of Fort Collins during and after the flood [pdf] (Marsha Hilmes-Robinson, Fort Collins Storm Water Utility)
• Discuss the local floodplain regulations before, immediately following, and eight years after the flood [pdf] (Susan Hayes, Fort Collins Storm Water Utility)

• CASA discussion
• Field trip discussion

• Relevance of economics to weather
• Value theory
• Discussion of ongoing SIP activities (analysis of Overall U.S. Sector Sensitivity Assessment data, cost-benefit study related to supercomputers for NOAA's Forecast Systems Lab, and non-market valuation associated with U.S. household survey)

• Theory, process, and mechanics of decision analysis
• Effective decision making in the face of uncertainty, complexity, and risk
• Problem structuring and identifying crucial variables

• Toward the development of a work plan including an identification of problem, objectives, methods, analysis, and final project format

• Brainstorming sessions, people present the best ideas based on their experiences
• Seamlessness and public-private-academic partnerships

1. Expressing Forecast Uncertainty (Craven)
2. Increasing Societal Resilience to Heat and Winter Storms (Fransen, Samenow, Uejio, Wilhelmi)
3. Methods to Assess Communication of Uncertainty (Biddle, Lazo, Morss, Schultz, Theis)
4. Optimizing Communication of Weather Information and Uncertainty (Stuart)
5. Precipitating an Understanding of Weather: A Focus on First Responders (print file) (Brandt, Jans, Szatanek)
6. Severe Weather and Schools Closure (print file) (Call, Ruin)
7. Taking it Global: Landscape of Weather and Society (Carsell, Eosco, Gratz, Kuipers)
8. The Impact of Weather on Organic Farming (Changnon, Drobot, Holthaus, Moore)
9. Weather Effects on Local Social Programs (Demuth)

• How do we keep our energy and passion going?
• What are roadblocks to our efforts?
• As researcher, how do you identify and then communicate with your user group?
• As a user, how do you identify and communicate your needs to the wx providers and researchers?
• Troubleshooting projects and what needs to happen before next meeting
• Guidelines for continued conversations before March
• What we have planned for AMS meeting in Atlanta
• What we have to include in March workshop
• Follow up on ideal weather/social science program